Showing posts with label greece bailolut. Show all posts
Showing posts with label greece bailolut. Show all posts

Friday, October 28, 2011

Politicians have delayed addressing the problem yet again.

I'm not sure what it is politicians (European and U.S.) don't get, and it's even scarier that the markets act so naively when it comes to delaying the inevitable.  Folks, we are going to pay the Piper, one way or the other.

I had written an article a few weeks ago titled, "Why Greece Will Fail and a Greek Default is Inevitable" and the fundamental issues, just like with the U.S., is that the only thing they have accomplished is to kick the can down the road...AGAIN!!!

Look at it this way, if you bought a house on the beach in Del Mar, CA for $3,000,000 and financed 100% your monthly payment would be approximately $20,000 per month (30 year, 5%).  Your financial situation is that you can actually afford to pay $5,000 per month (30% of a monthly salary of $16,675 per month, $200,100 annual salary).  So, you fall behind in your monthly payments and you meet with your bank to work out your own personal debt crisis.  You are able to bring your political connections with the Obama administration to put pressure on the bank and they agree to cut your mortgage in half.  You have now succeeded in reducing your mortgage to a mere $1,500,000 and your payment is cut to $10,000 per month! You celebrate and party like you've just won the lottery, right!

If you do, you're an idiot because you still can't afford to pay this adjusted mortgage and you're still upside down.  This is EXACTLY what the European debt crisis is doing...and the markets are partying like this is some miraculous solution when in fact all they've done is forestall the inevitable.

The Greek Debt Reduction deal isn't enough to save Europe, and the problem is likely to come back to haunt investors in the near term.  Just like with the story of your mortgage above, you're going to get another visit from the bank wanting to know how you're going to pay the $10k per month and when they realize you aren't even capable of paying that...you're going to be going through another negotiation, just like Greece and other EU members are going to do.  Greece and many other EU members are flat broke, it's just that no one is willing to speak the truth and call it what it is.  

Most EU members continue to increase their debt, only following the horrible example of the U.S.  The fact that there is an organization called the "International Swaps & Derivatives Association" should be scary enough, but the fact that they project $3.7 billion of debt-insurance contracts won’t be triggered should have you asking the question...how much debt is still outstanding and when does that come due?

IF you follow the advice of Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and the new book, "Unfair Advantage" you will be out of the craziness of the markets and focusing on the 5 G's.  Gold, Ground (Real Estate), Grub/Groceries, Gasoline and Guns. 

In my article titled, "The problem with the EU crisis is that no one really knows much of anything" I stated, "At some point, the Europeans are going to be forced to either default honestly and painfully...or to bail themselves out boldly and fraudulently, like we Americans. 

As Americans we are already on the path to financial self-destruction, it's not a question of if...only a matter of time. All Europe is doing is following our horrible example and delaying the inevitable. Our financial implosion will pick up speed, until we finally reach our destination."


Monday, October 10, 2011

Why Greece Will Fail and a Greek Default is Inevitable


Date: October 10, 2011 Reporting From: Bangkok, Thailand

Let's pretend for a moment that Greece is a human being. I'll call him George. 

George is a hairdresser and makes $40,000 per year. George has limited assets. He has zero savings, no precious metals, and is way underwater on his mortgage. His credit card debt is over $100,000, and his bare minimum living expenses are $45,000 annually, over 10% more than he makes. George's credit is pitiful, and he cannot obtain any more new loans.

George's neighbor Hans has a big family. All the kids work hard and contribute to the family savings. Hans sees George's plight and decides the neighborhood has to stick together; he starts loaning George some money out of his family's savings, and eventually begins to take on more and more of George's personal debts.

Many of the other neighbors-- Luciano, Seamus, and Juan-- are in the same boat as George: drowning in debt with massive personal expenses and no hope to pay them back. 

Everyone is looking to Hans for help.  He's the responsible one in the neighborhood. Now, Hans doesn't want them all to go bust because he knows it would be bad for the neighborhood property values... but Hans's children are balking at the prospect of working hard on their newspaper routes just so that George can keep his plasma screen TV. 

Very soon, George is going to run out of options and will have to have a difficult conversation with his credit card companies. In the real world, there is no other choice.

In the pretend world of politics, however, European leaders have been able to convince everyone that it's all under control. Never mind that the whole situation has completely fractured capital markets; traditional valuation metrics have taken a back seat to rumors of secret meetings and loud talk of bailout plans.

Think about it: Dexia passed summer bank stress tests with flying colors. A couple of months later it's going bust. How can markets function without confidence in balance sheet accuracy? Or whether a government will even be around tomorrow? This is kind of a problem when sovereign debt is the cornerstone of the financial system...

And yet, stock markets worldwide surged today on the news of a European 'pledge' to help banks. 

Do yourself a favor and stop watching their lips move. These 'plans' are nothing more than lies and misdirection. Just like our friend George, a Greek default has to happen. Politicians can pretend whatever they want, but in the real world where we live, financial deadbeats have no other options.


Until tomorrow, 
 
Simon Black
Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com 

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